Dr Neil Paul

Can we predict who we need to cater for in general practice?

· Originally posted on LinkedIn, Nov 2022

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Revolution.html?soid=1102665899193&aid=1y5IRTIO1aE

This is very interesting - I love a good info graphic - I guess the question is what difference will it make?

My surgery has 27000 pts - I know the detailed demographics of all of them - shouldn’t I be able to accurately predict at some level - how many appointments I need to cater for them? Do practices with poor access just not have enough capacity? (for whatever reason)

I’ve also often wondered if we could analyse patterns more at a practice level to improve care - it’s a form of risk strat. How many times does the average diabetic attend my surgery versus - the average surgery or my peer surgeries? why is my average higher or lower? do I deliver better care? cheaper care? or not? who is delivering the best outcomes for the least attendances and cheapest cost (prescriptions etc) what are they doing that we aren’t?

looking at patients if the average 60 year old diabetic attends 3 times a year (ok there is some variation but I don’t know what it is?) why is Bob coming 8 times? is it something he’s doing or something we aren’t? does he have other risk factors or issues that if we recognise and address?

We need someone who can manipulate the data and time to digest and implement any changes..

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